“…why do operators keep drilling while their own over-production has depressed the price of natural gas by half of its value?” Art Berman, 2010 Thirty years ago, at an energy conference at M.I.T., I made a presentation about our research on natural gas supply, and opened with a joke. (That is, intentional humor.) The gas industry, I noted, kept saying that prices were too low to cover their costs, while continuing to drill. What could explain this? Management psychology? Animal spirits? Finance theory (option valuations)? No, the explanation was found in “The Journal of Abnormal Psychology.” The joke was much appreciated, except by the natural gas producers in the audience. Now, the same question could be raised. After all, for most of a decade, predictions of a production collapse have floated around the punditsphere, while estimates of the breakeven price have tended to be well above those which have […]