Today, I’m going to try and tackle the reasoning for my ‘wild’ predictions for oil reaching triple digits by the end of 2017. While I am nearly alone in these forecasts, they are not just pulled out of space, but with deep regard for the fundamental supply/demand picture that everyone mostly agrees upon, combined with what I think is a deeper insight into the likely trajectory of oil company leverage, financing and the role of financial oil derivatives. Despite the technical nature of this discussion, I think I can make a strong case for $120 oil in 2018 using only two charts of my own making – one charting global demand, which is more universally agreed upon, and then an overlay of global production, which is more open to prediction. First, demand: Almost all analysts including the EIA and IEA agree that demand continues to grow at a steady […]