Why aren’t oil prices rising faster? The recent recovery in oil prices has largely stalled out and investors looking at historical figures could be forgiven for not understanding why prices cannot move higher for now. Oil is stuck in neutral despite the fact that even after prices started to crash, many investors once saw $60 as a remarkably cheap threshold. Today, prices remain firmly below that level, and investors will probably have to wait for more positive data before getting close to that level. The problem is not production or a glut of oil. U.S. oil output is falling slowly but steadily over time. At this point, the U.S. is producing about 8.4 million barrels per day, which is the lowest level since roughly May of 2014. Oil production displays a high degree of serial autocorrelation over time, meaning that production tends to continue in trends. Actions […]