Cheniere Energy has long been my favorite contrarian indicator in the U.S. natural gas market. For those unfamiliar with the term, a contrarian indicator is an event which suggests that a broadly and firmly held view–in this case, the view that U.S. natural gas supplies will grow and remain cheap for decades–is about to begin a reversal. As the company shipped its first cargo of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export earlier this year, the glut of cheap U.S. natural gas seem to vindicate Cheniere’s plans. I, on the other hand, imagined that the shipment was not confirmation of Cheniere’s assumptions, but a contrarian signal that natural gas production was about to dip and that prices were finally going to turn higher in a sustained way. I say this based on the timing of Cheniere’s last scheme, a U.S. natural gas import terminal that now sits unused next […]