Only Higher Prices Can Prevent The Imminent Natural Gas Bust

9 Sep 2016   Shale Gas

One hundred years of natural gas? Not at these prices. U.S. gas production is declining and shale gas output is down almost 2.5 Bcf per day. Production is decreasing while consumption and exports are both increasing. EIA data indicates a supply deficit by the end of 2016. Henry Hub spot prices have doubled since early March. Will companies show discipline to preserve higher prices? Not a chance. They will drill more wells if investors continue to provide capital. This, however, will probably be too little too late to stop the decline in gas production that is already underway. Real Gas Prices Have Never Been Lower In February 2016, I wrote that an increase in natural gas prices was inevitable and in April, I wrote that prices would double . Now, spot prices have doubled from $1.49 on March 4 to $2.97 per mmBtu on August 29 (Figure 1). Still, […]

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