- Global oil supply rose 0.8 mb/d in October to 97.8 mb/d after producers in OPEC and non-OPEC opened the taps. World oil output was 0.8 mb/d above a year ago, with higher OPEC supply offsetting non-OPEC declines. After declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d next year.
- OPEC crude output rose by 230 kb/d to a record 33.83 mb/d in October after production recovered in Nigeria and Libya and flows from Iraq hit an all-time high. Output from the group’s 14 members has climbed for five months running, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In October, OPEC supply stood nearly 1.3 mb/d above a year ago.
- Oil demand growth is forecast to ease to 1.2 mb/d in 2016 due to sharp slowdowns in the OECD Americas and China. A similar expansion is foreseen in 2017. Oil demand peaked at a five-year high of 1.8 mb/d in 2015.
- OECD commercial stocks fell for the second month in a row in September, by 17.1 mb to 3 068 mb. In China, stocks of crude built by 29.7 mb in September. Initial data point to renewed crude stock builds in the US and Japan. Stock builds could continue through 2017 if OPEC does not agree to production restraint at its forthcoming meeting in Vienna.
- Global refinery runs are expected to fall by a seasonal 1 mb/d in 4Q16 to 78.9 mb/d, up 150 kb/d year-on-year (y-o-y).Annual growth of 270 kb/d for 2016 is the lowest increase in more than a decade.
- Benchmark crude prices followed a bell-shaped curve in October, rising in the first part of the month before erasing nearly all of those gains on doubts about the likelihood of an OPEC production agreement. At the time of writing, front-month ICE Brent was trading at $46.79/bbl.
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