The impact of the OPEC production cuts could be much more muted than many had hoped for as non-OPEC output comes roaring back in 2017. And it isn’t just from U.S. shale. The IEA predicts that non-OPEC countries on the whole will add 380,000 bpd of net capacity this year, and crucially, that figure includes the promised 558,000 bpd reductions that 11 countries promised in conjunction with the OPEC cuts. Of course, U.S. shale will be a major factor in this output rebound. In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA revised up its forecast for U.S. production this year, expecting gains of 170,000 bpd. Drilling activity is rising quickly – in December, the U.S. saw the largest monthly increase in the rig count in more than two years. Capex is rising, employment is positive, and the industry is becoming more efficient at drilling. “Whether it be shorter drilling […]