Much focus is on how China’s capital outflows will impact the world’s biggest pile of foreign-exchange reserves, but another issue in need of attention here is the rally in crude, argues Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In a country where oil prices play “a disproportionate role” in the balance of payments — and China’s crude output is forecast to fall as much as 7 percent this year — the commodity’s bullish outlook poses a serious threat to reserves that have already shrunk more than 20 percent in the past two years. “The outlook for the balance of payments has deteriorated from a year ago, because oil prices are now on an upward trajectory, which could push the current-account surplus to around $200 billion this year, down from $331 billion as recently as 2015,” Goldman analysts Robin Brooks and Michael Cahill wrote […]