WTI futures fell $2.86 from $53.14 to $50.28 per barrel, and Brent futures dropped $3.81 from $55.92 to $52.11 per barrel. WTI is trading below $49 and Brent below $52 per barrel at the time of writing. The apparent cause was a larger-than-expected 8.2 million-barrel (mmb) addition to U.S. crude oil inventories. Over-Reaction Based on history, we can see that this was an over-reaction. WTI has fallen below the $50 to $55 per barrel range in which oil futures have traded for the last 3 months (Figure 1). (Click to enlarge) Figure 1. Oil prices have not exceeded $55 per barrel since early 2015. Source: EIA, CBOE and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. An 8.2 mmb addition to crude oil storage is actually fairly normal during the annual re-stocking season that we are in now (Figure 2). Inventories increased 10.4 mmb during this week in 2016 and the 5-year average […]