U.S. oil production continues to rise, threatening to offset much of the output reductions from OPEC, and yet again pushing out the time horizon for the oil market balancing. There is a growing consensus that oil prices will remain below $60 per barrel in 2017 even if OPEC decides to extend its production cuts by another six months. Estimates for the rebound in U.S. shale vary, but they differ only on magnitude and not on trajectory. Nearly all major oil analysts and investment banks see a strong resurgence in shale output. Production gains are already more or less baked in for the next few months. Rig counts have surged roughly 90 percent since last May, with sharp gains since OPEC announced its deal in late November. However, gains in production often lag behind increases in the rig count by a few months, meaning that gains U.S. shale production stemming […]