Summary Recent data on international rig counts continue to show little increase into 2017. We anticipate oil production from non-OPEC, non-US production sources to decline in 2017 as depletion and decline rates take their toll; We differ from IEA’s interpretation of the trend line for non-OPEC, non-US production in H2 2017. This is our third and final article updating our oil thesis for 2017. Our prior articles addressed sentiment and fundamentals , and here, we’ll discuss international rig counts and what the low number of rigs portend for oil production. As always, we like to use our kids’ affinity for desserts to explain an oil concept, and kids are a bit of an expert when it comes to understanding decline and depletion rates. So, let’s use my daughter for instance. Like any oil producer with a new oil field, whenever my daughter gets a big bowl of ice cream, […]