Chart 1 – A Model using data from Enno Peter’s The chart above (chart 1) needs some explanation. It is based on the Permian LTO model found by using Enno Peters’ data from and an estimate of future well completions. I doubt output will rise this quickly, but the peak level may be about right if oil prices follow the assumed scenario. Chart 2 The estimate of future well completions is based on past well completions and horizontal oil rig counts from Baker Hughes in Chart 2. Chart 3 For the most recent 3 months the average wells completed per horizontal oil rig count from 17 weeks ago (3.9 months) was about 1.89 wells per rig as seen in Chart 3. Chart 4 If it is assumed that this value (1.89 wells/rig) remains constant over the next 4 months, we can use the horizontal oil rig counts […]