What if it IS Different for Oil This Time?

9 May 2017   Prices

It’s time we prepare ourselves. It may actually be different for oil this time… Yeah, I know. It’s an article of faith for investors. Anytime you hear someone say, “It’s different this time,” you can chuckle to yourself with an air of superiority, because you know, you KNOW , that person is just wrong. And not only that, but when you hear things might actually be different, there’s probably an investment bubble somewhere… Like when investors hailed the economic miracle of the internet and wondered if productivity had made a permanent move higher. Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector had averaged about 1.3% between 1973 and 1990. Then it jumped to 2.2% from 1990 to 2000 and to 2.6% from 2000 to 2007. Nope. For the last decade, U.S. productivity has gone back to 1.2%. Or like when before the housing bubble collapsed, former Fed Chief Greenspan wondered […]

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