Why Goldman Thinks You Should Go Long On Oil

11 May 2017   Prices

As pessimism sweeps over the oil market, a few prominent voices are unbowed, arguing that the market is well on its way towards balance. Goldman Sachs’ head of commodities Jeff Currie said at an S&P Global Platts Conference in London this week that investors should probably be going long on crude oil because the market is already in a supply deficit. He pointed to the futures market, where the curve could be headed into backwardation – a situation in which near-term oil futures trade at a premium to contracts further out. That structure points to concerns about a deficit in the short run, which is why front month contracts would trade at a higher price than deliveries six or twelve months away. But the backwardation is also a symptom of fears over long-term oil prices. Goldman Sachs has consistently argued that crude prices could remain relatively low for years […]

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