Don’t Count On Seasonality To Boost Oil Prices

7 Jul 2017   Prices

Seasonality is a concept well understood by the capital markets. Take adages such as “Sell in May and go away,” which reputedly has its origin in the North American mining industry, where mines closed down in May for refurbishment and retooling because there would be no orders from Europe or other world markets over the long summer months. Other examples abound. For investors, seasonality is the tell-tale of when to trade and when not to trade or, alternatively, how to position a portfolio for recurring and anticipated future market events. Seasonality in the crude oil market simply reflects physical supply and demand, and the alteration between these two dynamics as external forces change. For example, everybody knows that summer driving season in the U.S. starts with the Memorial Day long week-end in May and lasts until Labor Day in September. Historically, this period is supportive of higher crude oil […]

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