OPEC Deal At Breaking Point As Compliance Falls

22 Jul 2017   OPEC

WTI has traded in a $3.90 range so far in July ($43.65 / $47.55) and the sideways price action has lead to waning market enthusiasm for bulls, bears and option traders who are betting aggressively on a quiet market. Over the last two weeks fund gross long positions in NYMEX WTI haven’t budged while gross short positions have been cut by 28%. In ICE BRENT speculators have also been inactive on the long side while cutting gross shorts by 13%. In options markets WTI U17 at the money implied volatility has dropped to a multi-week low at 28% on a lack of large directional bets which have been justified by a 2-month low in realized volatility (20-day) to 26%. Lastly, even retail is getting less excited about crude having withdrawn $450m from the USO in the last two weeks. – So where will we find excitement? Next week’s calendar […]

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