By the end of the century, the global temperature is likely to rise more than 3.6 degrees. This rise in temperature is the ominous conclusion reached by two studies using entirely different methods published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday. One study used statistical analysis to show there is a 95 percent chance that Earth will warm more than 3.6 degrees at century’s end, and a 1 percent chance that it will be at or below the 3.6-degree mark. “The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 [degrees Celsius] and our median forecast is 3.2 Celsius,” said Adrian Raftery, author of the first study. “Our model is based on data which already show the effect of existing emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 Celsius warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.” The second study analyzed […]