Expert Analysis: Oil Prices Have Risen Too Far Too Fast

30 Sep 2017   Prices

Last Friday we argued that the rally in WTI and Brent looked overstretched from technical and positioning viewpoints. This week obviously didn’t serve our viewpoint as geopolitical tensions in Iraq alongside bullish long-term calls from Citi and the trading group community- particularly Trafigura- at APPEC pushed the market slightly higher. There are undeniably glut-clearing trends at work in the U.S. and abroad but we continue to feel that crude oil has risen too far, too fast and positioned for length-liquidation on any fundamental speed bumps as WTI’s 14-day RSI touched 70 this week while RBOB + Heating Oil net length held by hedge funds reached 2.5 standard deviations above its 2yr average. – Despite our view that the market is technically overbought we still need to acknowledge tightening fundamentals in several key global trading hubs. PADD IB gasoline stocks are now -13 percent y/y at their lowest level since […]

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