And then imagine that we wake up in 2040 and learn that every country actually kept to their promise. In 23 years all new vehicle sales—everywhere—would be electrically-powered. I call this scenario “GB40” – a global ban on the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by the year 2040. For reference, the GB40 market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) would exceed the projections of even the most aggressive analyst forecasts today. Yet, GB40 is an interesting thought experiment. I always like to think about the future at the margins of realism and work my analysis up or down from there. Stress-testing extremes, like a universal ban, helps to understand the assumptions needed to project the future. And more importantly question the assumptions behind the assumptions. Why Do We Need To Ban The Internal Combustion Engine? Why are countries like Norway, UK, France, India and China announcing plans to […]