A month ago, Iraq’s Kurds raised their hopes for independence after voting overwhelmingly ‘Yes’ to break away from Iraq in a contentious referendum. Now, those dreams appear shattered after Iraqi troops rolled into Kirkuk, ripped down the Kurdish banner and raised Iraq’s national flag. The oil-rich city, claimed by both the Kurds and Baghdad, was critical to the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) ambitions for secession. Economically, Kirkuk’s oilfields were central to the Kurds’ dream of creating a viable Kurdish state. Emotionally, the ethnically-mixed city has long been claimed by Kurdish officials as the heart of Kurdistan. But as Iraqi tanks rumbled into Kirkuk on Monday, cheered by the city’s Turkmen and Arab minorities who have bristled under three years of Kurdish rule, the most dangerous possible outcome of the referendum bid may have emerged. Two regional forces, the Iraqi military and the Kurdish peshmerga, armed and trained by the US are now at loggerheads. And with Arab-Kurdish tensions running high, there is the risk of an escalating conflict in a region that has just shaken off the last territorial footholds of Isis, a battle that saw Iraqi and Kurdish forces fight side by side. In Baghdad, all eyes are now on the Kurdistan regional president, Masoud Barzani, and his ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which has loudly condemned the Iraqi advances and for days warned about the possibility of war. The party also claims that Iraqi Shia militias backed by US-rival Iran have been involved in the operation in Kirkuk. “Up to now, things are under control . . . but the next two days will be very dangerous. If the KDP chooses to escalate, this will really worsen,” an Iraqi official in Baghdad said.