The IEA lowered its demand forecast by 50,000 bpd in 2017 and 190,000 bpd in 2018, raising concerns that the oil market is actually not as healthy as it seems. That puts demand growth at 1.5 million barrels per day this year, and only 1.3 mb/d in 2018. In fact, the oil market might actually be oversupplied in the fourth quarter of 2017, which could deflate the recent price rally. Oil traders have gained confidence in the rebalancing effort lately, with impressive OPEC compliance and a high likelihood that the cartel extends its production cuts, perhaps through the end of next year. That has helped push Brent into the mid-$60s and WTI in the upper-$50s per barrel. OPEC added even more enthusiasm to the market on Monday, when it published a report that boasted of “high conformity levels” with the production cuts from its members, and noted that the […]