After months of talk and speculation regarding OPEC’s production cuts, the moment of truth is almost upon us—the cartel and its allies are meeting in Vienna this week to decide the future of their pact. An announcement of some sort is expected on November 30, but analysts and the oil market aren’t as convinced as they were two months ago that the statement will be about a nine-month extension through the end of 2018. Yet, extending until the end of next year is still considered to be the base scenario, and the oil market has largely priced in such decision. So if OPEC falls short of this base expectation, oil prices could take a hit. On the other hand, rolling over the cuts until end-2018 could over-tighten the market and boost prices more, giving U.S. shale all the more reason to raise production. OPEC has little room to maneuver […]