Will Surging U.S. Shale Kill Off The Oil Rally?

12 Jan 2018   Prices, Shale Oil

The EIA released the latest version of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), in which the agency dramatically revised up its expectations for U.S. oil output. Previously, the EIA thought the U.S. would only surpass the 10 mb/d threshold at some point in mid-2018; now they see it happening in February. The larger production increase occurring on an accelerated timeline means that U.S. production will average 10.3 mb/d in 2018, the EIA says, up from its prior forecast of just 10.0 mb/d. In other words, U.S. output in 2018 will be 970,000 bpd higher than last year, a larger increase than the previous estimate of a 780,000-bpd increase. The gains keep coming—the agency expects the U.S. to average 10.8 mb/d in 2019, while surpassing 11 mb/d by November 2019. Obviously, as has been the case for some time, most of the growth will come from the Permian basin. On the […]

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