Market participants are still using lower for longer oil price scenario as a base case. We explain why oil prices have to move to a level where the bull thesis can no longer be ignored. Our view is that this will happen when WTI reaches $80/bbl, or our upside target for 2018. The thinking is that Saudi, knowing full well the depressed sentiment, will shock the market in the second half of 2018 via lower exports. This will put upward pressure on Brent, which would widen Brent – WTI spread and result in higher US crude exports. Note: This article was first published in our weekly flagship report WCTW 2-24-18 . HFI Research subscribers get write-ups like this every Sunday in the weekly flagship report. If you would like more info, see here . We are strong believers in the theory of reflexivity. In our opinion, George Soros’s […]