The threat of falling oil supply from both Iran and Venezuela looms large amid geopolitical tension, economic fears and sanctions. All the while, both are scrambling to maintain flows to key destinations. Below we take a peek at some such routes, and how flows could change. The chart below shows Iranian crude exports (no condensates) bound for Europe. It highlights how flows have changed since sanctions were lifted – and also underscores where we could see changes coming next. UN sanctions through 2015 meant Europe didn’t receive any deliveries at all in the three years prior, but once sanctions were lifted in early 2016, deliveries to the region rose to nearly 20 percent of total Iranian crude exports, rising further to nearly 25 percent both this year and last. Southern Europe has accounted for the lion’s share of flows into Europe, with the leading European recipients being Italy, France, […]