There are plenty of reasons why the oil market is suddenly on edge, and why oil prices are at their highest level since 2014. Venezuela’s oil production is falling off of a cliff, and could fall faster now that creditors are swarming over the country. The upcoming presidential election risks a financial crackdown from the U.S. Treasury, threatening to add to the country’s woes. The more obvious catalyst over the past week was the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, putting a sizable chunk of Iranian supply at risk, although exactly how much remains to be seen. Most importantly, the underlying fundamentals are bullish: the supply/demand balance is tighter than at any moment in recent memory, with demand expected to outpace supply for the rest of the year. Global inventories are back down to the five-year average, and falling. Because data is published on a lag, the market […]