The OPEC meeting is a week away and based on the signals from the group’s top producers, the market is assuming that the group will increase oil production. However, the exact amount is still unknown, and the fallout from the lack of consensus could play out in several ways. It has been a few years since the degree of uncertainty heading into an OPEC meeting was this high, and even longer since the discord from within the group was so pronounced. The infighting could lead to some unexpected outcomes. Here are several possible scenarios to consider as the meeting approaches. Scenario #1: OPEC+ agrees to moderate production increases, somewhere on the order of 500,000 to 800,000 bpd. The middle-of-the-road scenario seems to be what the market is pricing in. Russia has reportedly pushed for more aggressive production increases. Early reporting from a few weeks ago indicated that Russia was […]