If it’s not too high, it’s certainly too low—at any rate, it’s never just right, because the odds that a forecaster, of all the possible numbers available, picked exactly the right number are literally one in infinity. This makes oil price analysis and forecasting a rather hopeless, and likely thankless, job. The only thing those analysts have to look forward to is being wrong—at best, they can look forward to being less wrong than their peers. Today’s market volatility is making even the savviest analyst leery of rubber stamping any given figure. We have the U.S./Iran debacle. The U.S./China debacle, the PDVSA debacle, and the Libya debacle. We have fights in Sudan/South Sudan over who’s got the oil and who can move it. Spatting between Iraq and the Kurds, Canada’s pipeline constraints, inventory surpluses, inventory crunches, too much capacity, not enough capacity, underinvestment in developing more reserves, seller’s alliances, […]