Two months before the U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports go into effect, Asian refiners and traders are beginning to line up their purchases for cargo loadings for November. On September 3, the crude oil trading cycle rolled to the month of November, and sentiment in the Middle East crude trade sharply changed. Asian buyers—whose oil purchases from the Middle East are priced off the Dubai and Oman benchmarks—are anticipating tighter supplies of medium and heavy sour crude grades from November onwards, when the U.S. sanctions are expected to stifle at least part of those Iranian barrels flowing to Asia. The market’s expectations of reduced flows of both medium and heavy sour grades from Iran lifted the Middle East crude structure at the start of September, sending the November Dubai cash and swap spread surging. This spread between Dubai cash and Dubai swap—a monthly cash-settled swap based on the […]