- Global oil demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.
- Non-OECD demand remains resilient but there is a risk to the 2019 outlook from currency depreciation and trade disputes. Demand in China and India combined will grow by 910 kb/d in 2018, but the pace slows to 640 kb/d in 2019.
- Global supply in August reached a record 100 mb/d as higher output from OPEC offset seasonal declines from non-OPEC. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply was up 2.6 mb/d y-o-y, led by the US. Non-OPEC production will grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and 1.8 mb/d in 2019.
- OPEC crude supply rose to a nine-month high of 32.63 mb/d in August. A rebound in Libya, near record Iraqi output and higher volumes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia outweighed a substantial reduction in Iran and a further fall in Venezuela.
- From August’s record rate of 83.5 mb/d, global crude runs decline due to maintenance before surging in December to another record high of 84.5 mb/d. US refining is booming with runs almost reaching 18 mb/d in August, while Latin American activity continues to fall.
- OECD commercial stocks rose 7.9 mb in July to 2 824 mb, only the fourth monthly increase in the last year. Stocks have been stable in a narrow range since March. Preliminary data for August point to significant inventory builds in Japan and the US, and a fall in Europe.
- ICE Brent prices fell in August but recently have climbed to two-month highs near $80/bbl.Both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures curves are backwardated. The Brent/WTI differential has widened by $5/bbl since early August due to relatively weaker US prices.
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