At least two companies in India have lined up oil shipments for November, the month that sanctions on Iran take effect. The 9 million barrels of oil secured for next month translate into nearly 300,000 bpd of supply. Meanwhile, other reports suggest that the U.S. is softening its zero tolerance approach to sanctions, and could issue waivers to some importers who make significant reductions but struggle to cut imports to zero. Taken together, the oil market is not nearly as concerned about a supply shortfall as it was as recently as last week. In fact, the precise amount of Iranian supply lost to sanctions could determine quite a bit. “If the declines in Iran exports are sooner and larger than our base case, it will be harder for other producers to offset them,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note last week. The uncertainty lies with the exact amount of […]