On October 3, 2018, we received confirmation that the in-service date for two new Mexican pipelines is delayed. These delays change our forecast for Mexican supply, leading to higher-than-expected LNG imports and lower-than-forecast U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico. In particular, the delay will have a pronounced impact on Permian outflows, postponing an anticipated 0.8 Bcf/d increase by three months, delaying much needed relief to the basin. Yesterday evening, we received confirmation from Fermaca that the two southern portions of the Wahalajara system – the La Laguna-Aguascalientes (LL-AGC) pipeline and the Villa de Reyes-Aguascalientes-Guadalajara (VAG) pipeline – will not come into service until March 2019. Genscape’s Mexico Natural Gas product features five-year supply and demand forecasts; prior to yesterday’s confirmation, our forecast expected these lines to enter service in January 2019. The LL-AGC and VAG legs will play a key role in allowing U.S.-sourced pipeline gas to displace Mexico’s supply […]