Brent is expected to peak at $95 per barrel (/bbl) by the end of Q2 2019, said the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), citing a forecast by Francisco Blanch and team and analysing the impact on global growth of an even larger and more sustained oil spike. The analysis specifically discusses the factors that could drive oil prices to $100/bbl, and hash out the winners and losers. • The Iran oil sanctions, shale bottlenecks, the collapse of Venezuela and demand growth pose upside risk to oil prices. • If oil remains around $100/bbl next year, growth in the Euro area, the UK and Japan would slow by a few tenths. • But the US, Australia and Brazil have ramped up energy production. This will likely cushion the blow to global growth. What’s driving oil? The most important near-term driver of oil prices is the supply shock coming out […]