The recovery in oil prices since the downturn of 2014/15 looks a lot like the upward adjustments that followed the slumps of 2008/09 and 1997/98, which could provide clues about what happens next.  The oil market is strongly cyclical, and although no two cycles are the same, they often show similar characteristics. Spot prices and calendar spreads exhibit cyclical movements that correlate closely with the market, alternating between periods of under- and over-supply. Brent’s six-month calendar spread seems to have reached a major cyclical peak in April 2018, up from a post-slump trough in January 2015, before trending downwards. Spot prices may have reached a similar peak in early October 2018. Although it is […]