Libya’s output recovery obscures the fragility of its outlook, against a backdrop of political uncertainty and a worsening security situation. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now Despite Libyan crude output recently surging to a five-year high of around 1.15 million b/d and expectations that production will average just over 1 million b/d next year, the critical risk of civil conflict is unlikely to fall anytime soon. Areas like the southwest of the country where the Sharara and El Feel oil fields are located remain particularly prone to outages caused by chronic fuel shortages and security problems. “It is inaccurate to look at the NOC’s [National Oil Corporation] production levels as an indicator because protests and disruptions occur even when production is high,” said Iliasse Sdiqui, a lead analyst at Whispering Bell, a risk management firm. In mid-December production was averaging close […]