One truth eternally rears its head in global oil markets: When the current price for oil no longer clears the market, it will drop. The inverse is also true: When supply doesn’t meet demand, the price will rise. Likewise, the market’s perception of each condition, rather actual data can also influence prices. That means we can take instruction from understanding past events that have impacted oil and apply them, with a timing caveat, to present day. Timing is critical because no one can really say exactly when the market will respond, one way or the other, to the larger forces influencing it. When you shoot a rocket at the moon, you don’t aim for where it is now, you calculate the trajectory and aim where you think it will be. Calculating what will happen with oil and gas prices is a lot like that conceptually, although there are many […]