There is no respite for Libya on its bumpy road to recover crude oil production to the levels of 2011, when the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi plunged the country into a deep division between the east and west and an incessant strife for control over its vital oil industry. A military operation launched this week could shape the fate of Libya’s oil production and exports for months and possibly years to come. The outcome is highly uncertain—it’s either boom or bust. Barely a day had passed since the African OPEC member won exemption from the new OPEC+ production cuts in early December, when its largest oil field, Sharara, was shut down, after armed militia claiming attachment to the local Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) seized control and demanded ransom to re-open it. More than a month later, Sharara remains offline, and Libya’s internationally recognized National Oil Corporation (NOC), which refuses […]