There has always been a lot of uncertainty around oil demand and supply, and in recent years this uncertainty has become excessive. Now, this level of excess uncertainty has got analysts struggling to make forecasts about demand and supply. Bloomberg this week quoted Goldman Sachs’ commodities chief Jeffrey Currie as saying it has become “increasingly difficult to know what production levels will balance the market.” Currie was referring to the decision OPEC+ needs to make at the start of next month on whether to continue cutting production or start increasing it. The analyst attributed this higher difficulty to the lack of clarity around Iranian exports and steadily rising U.S. production. The former factor has made Saudi Arabia reluctant to live up to its promise to fill any gap left by sanctioned Iranian oil: it does not know exactly how deep a gap there is, so it risks oversupply if […]