Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said Thursday that Iran’s oil output may fall by a further 10%-20% by the end of 2020, as US sanctions against it continue to hit production. “As a result [of the sanctions] production in Iran has fallen over the last year by 33% to 2.6 million b/d and by the end of next year it may fall a further 10%-20% to 2.2 million b/d,” Sechin said during a panel session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Sechin added that sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, and Russia had resulted in around a third of global oil reserves being subject to sanctions.
Iran pumped 2.57 million b/d in April, a 120,000 b/d drop from March and the lowest since December 1988, the latest S&P Global Platts OPEC survey found, as many buyers began to shy away in anticipation of the US decision not to extend sanctions waivers beyond May 2. Many analysts expect an even heftier fall in Iranian crude production going forward as the US doubles down on sanctions enforcement.