Oil major Total SA says EVs will drive 30% of car sales Outlook is more bullish on EVs than most forecasters Electric cars are coming fast — and that’s not just the opinion of carmakers anymore. Total SA , one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is now saying EVs may constitute almost a third of new-car sales by the end of the next decade. The surge in battery powered vehicles will cause demand for oil-based fuels to peak in the 2030s, Total Chief Energy Economist Joel Couse said at Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s conference in New York on Tuesday. EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030, after which fuel “demand will flatten out,” Couse said. “Maybe even decline.” Couse’s projection for electric cars is the highest yet by a major oil company and exceeds BNEF’s own forecast, said Colin McKerracher, head […]
The Ford Fusion Hybrid knocked the Prius out of the top spot for the first time in U.S. sales during January and March. That’s reflected more market competition and an overall hybrid sales decline in the U.S. since gasoline prices took a dive in 2014 and stayed down. Compared to that pivotal year, U.S. hybrid sales were down from 43,790 in March 2014 (right before the oil price drop) to 32,012 units sold in March 2017. Sales for the Prius liftback, which had been the flagship green car in the U.S. and globally for the past decade, dropped about 50 percent during that period. Pressure has been on Toyota and other automakers – especially Japanese rival Honda – to join the electric vehicle race. Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai had been leaning toward hydrogen fuel cell vehicles over EVs as an alternative technology. But growing sales of EVs in China […]
A recent study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) concluded that by 2030 a quarter of all miles driven in the U.S. will most likely be in autonomous vehicles. BCG’s core message that the automotive industry “is on the brink of a major transformation” and that “for millions of Americans … the next vehicle they purchase may be the last car they ever own” did not surprise us. When back in 2015 we began researching current developments in the automobile industry in order to assess how these could eventually impact the transportation industry’s crude oil demand, it quickly became clear to us that the future of driving is autonomous. As we documented in “The Second Automotive Revolution: Implications for the Oil Industry”, self-driving cars will simply offer a better value proposition than the conventional car. Most people see the act of driving as a necessary waste of time and […]
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects that electricity generation fueled by natural gas this summer (June, July, and August) will be lower than last summer, but it will continue to exceed that of any other fuel, including coal-fired generation, for the third summer in a row. The projected share of total U.S. generation for natural gas is expected to average 34%, which is down from 37% last summer but still exceeds coal’s generation share of 32%. Based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), EIA estimates that average U.S. population-weighted cooling degree days in the summer of 2016 reached the highest level on record. NOAA projections for this summer indicate cooling degree days will be 11% lower than last year. These milder expected temperatures lead to forecast U.S. summer electricity generation of 1.16 billion […]
Ford Motor Co. just announced an ambitious electrification strategy for China. The global Mondeo sedan will see the Mondeo Energy plug-in hybrid launched there early next year, followed by an all-electric small SUV a few years later that will go about 280 miles on one charge. The Detroit automaker sees 70 percent of all Ford nameplates coming with an electrified option to China by 2025; that will include all of its products manufactured jointly through Ford’s state-mandated joint venture partner, Changan Ford JV. Ford will be adding manufacturing facilities to meet the targets. Ford is taking a more tepid approach to the U.S. market with a small number of electric models for sale. Ford CEO Mark Fields has also asked President Donald Trump to take a more conservative approach to federal fuel economy and emissions guidelines than enacted by the Obama administration shortly before leaving office. Tesla reported making […]
Little more than 2 1/2 years from now, the global fleet of merchant ships will have to reduce drastically how much sulfur their engines belch into the atmosphere. While that will do good things — like diminishing the threat of acid rain and helping asthma sufferers — there’s a $60 billion sting in the tail. That’s how much more seaborne vessels may be forced to spend each year on higher-quality fuel to comply with new emission rules that start in 2020, consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. estimates. For an industry that hauls everything from oil to steel to coal, higher operating costs will compound the financial strain on cash-strapped ship owners, whose vessels earn an average of 70 percent less than they did just before the 2008-09 recession. The consequences may reach beyond the 90,000-ship merchant fleet, which handles about 90 percent of global trade. Possible confusion over which carriers […]
Tesla, the upstart electric carmaker, surpassed US motor pioneer Ford in market value on Monday, as investors look to a future beyond the internal combustion engine. Shares of Tesla, founded in 2003, rose 7.3 per cent to a market capitalisation of $48.7bn, gliding past the 100-year old Ford, whose shares fell 1.7 per cent after disappointing March sales results to a market value of $45.3bn. While it is symbolic for a Silicon Valley start-up to surpass the valuation of a company that helped make motor cars ubiquitous in early 20th century America, car market analysts point out that Tesla achieved the feat based on global deliveries of only 76,000 cars last year — compared with Ford’s global sales in 2016 of 6.6m. “The stock market has always treated Ford like an industrial stock while Tesla has been considered a tech stock,” says Michelle Krebs of Autotrader.com. “Let’s remember — Ford earns money — lots of it. Tesla does not. The real test for Tesla comes when it launches the Model 3, the high-volume, mainstream-priced electric vehicle that is supposed to help the company achieve profitability.” While Tesla’s stock market value surpassed Ford’s for the first time, the electric carmaker had already surpassed its rival in terms of ithe broader measure of enterprise value. Based on enterprise value — a more complete measure of companies’ respective values, since it takes account of their net debt or net cash positions — Tesla is worth just under $60bn, while Ford is worth $39.1bn.
Tesla Inc. on Sunday said its global sales rose 69% in the first quarter, its best quarter of sales yet, putting the auto maker on a path to meet its goal of 50,000 deliveries in the first half of the year. The Silicon Valley electric-car maker said it delivered roughly 25,000 vehicles—about 13,450 Model S sedans and about 11,550 Model X sport-utility vehicles—in the quarter, compared with a total of 14,820 a year earlier. …
A common refrain one hears these days from market bulls and reads in long-term analyses is that by 2020, the current glut in supply and decline in prices will be reversed: that the current drought in exploration and capital investment in new production will send available supply plummeting, with a complimentary spike in prices. This was the prediction of a recent IEA report , which guessed that oil prices would reach $70 by 2020. Whether this reversal in the market occurs or not will depend in large part on global demand. In the United States, around 40 percent of crude is refined into motor fuel and gasoline, to feed the American people’s favorite gas-guzzlers. Crude prices picked up this week, rising above $50 thanks to signs that U.S. demand for refined products is strengthening. Higher-than-expected inventory drops, together with outages in Libya, pushed the oil price up. But can […]
Ramona Saucedo has been on the road for nearly two months, and she’s ready to get back home. Standing in front of a dusty white truck in the parking lot of a Flying J truck stop, she fingers her iPhone as she waits for a call from her business partner, who is checking on her progress. If she stays on schedule, driving 10 or 11 hours a day, she’ll be back home in Tucson next week. “I miss cooking my own meals, believe it or not,” she says with a chuckle. At 52, Saucedo has been driving long-haul for nearly a decade, and has the heavy-set build that comes from long hours on the road. It’s a job that runs in the family: her father, brother and son were all truck drivers, and Saucedo says she started driving mainly for the pay. At her old job as an office worker she could barely make ends meet, and had to scrape and scrounge if one of her two children needed a little cash. Now, she drives thousands of miles a week and travels all over the country, sleeping each night inside the truck. Money is no longer a problem. At the truck stop, Saucedo is surrounded by hundreds of drivers who have made similar trade-offs. The United States has more than three million truck drivers, many of whom drive long-haul, or “over the road” as it’s known in the business. As one of the highest paying jobs available that does not require a college degree, trucking can be an economic lifeline. But its future is increasingly uncertain.
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 520,000 barrels per day (b/d), 55,000 b/d (12%) above the 2015 level, despite a year-over-year decline in domestic crude oil production. Even though oil exports have increased, growth in U.S. crude oil exports has slowed significantly from its pace from 2013 to 2015, when annual U.S. crude oil production grew rapidly. Following the removal of restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports in December 2015, the United States exported crude oil to 26 different countries in 2016, compared with 10 countries the previous year. In 2015, 92% of U.S. crude oil exports went to Canada, which was exempt from U.S. crude oil export restrictions. After restrictions were lifted, Canada remained the top destination but received only 58% of U.S. crude exports in 2016. Aside from Canada, European destinations such as the Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom, […]
EEStor Announces High Voltage High Permittivity Dielectric, Completed Million Cycle Testing and Initial Energy Density Results
Breakthrough results on CMBT permittivity at voltage Key energy density results achieved with 100 watt-hour/liter near-term target Independent verification of 1 Million cycle test results EEStor Corporation announced today that it has completed independent third party testing of its Composite Modified Barium Titanate (“CMBT”) dielectric materials at high voltage and has set preliminary energy density targets based on these results. In addition, the Company has successfully completed its one million cycle testing, the results of which are detailed below. Ian Clifford, Founder and CEO of the Company commented: “The heart of EEStor’s technology is its patented CMBT dielectric. Independent test reports released today from MRA and Intertek show the unique performance of our dielectric at high voltages and high temperatures. These results indicate the achievement of an energy density milestone that legitimizes our […]
Earlier this month, Tesla Inc reported that its revenues in China topped $1 billion in 2016, more than triple the revenues it generated there in 2015. The Chinese market was only second to the U.S. in terms of revenue generation for Tesla last year. The electric carmaker is not breaking down revenues by items, and has not offered any explanation for the triple revenues in China. The revenue jump could have been the result of China’s license plate-issuing policies in major cities that fast track EV license plates issuing as the country grapples with perpetual pollution and traffic jams. Tesla’s Chinese revenues last year were $1.065 billion, compared to $318.5 million in 2015, and $477 million in 2014, the EV carmaker’s regulatory filing from March 1 shows. According to Reuters Breakingviews ’ Robyn Mak, one of the key contributors to Tesla’s soaring Chinese revenues is the local green-car, or […]
Investors fretting about too much oil supply may get some cheer from demand, or at least the statistics that consistently underestimate it. The International Energy Agency’s closely watched annual estimates of global crude demand have been revised up for the past seven years by an average of 880,000 barrels a day, according to a Wall Street…
Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered the reopening of a review of future fuel economy and emissions standards for US cars, in a move that could slow down development of electric vehicles and new efficiency technologies. Regulations confirming standards for vehicle emissions in 2022-25, which were hurried through in the final fortnight of Barack Obama’s administration, will instead be reviewed next year. The Obama administration estimated that the rules would cost car manufacturers in the US $33bn. The new administration’s move, which had been sought by the large car manufacturers, coincided with a visit by the president to Michigan to meet industry executives and workers. Addressing autoworkers bussed to a disused factory outside Detroit which the President said had been used during the second world war to build B-24 bombers, Mr Trump promised to “make Detroit the car capital of the world again” adding: “we are going to restore the originally scheduled midterm review and ensure that any regulations we have protect your jobs.” Jessica Caldwell, analyst at Edmunds, said the emissions targets had forced manufacturers to shift research and development budgets from the trucks and SUVs consumers most wanted towards electric vehicles and hybrids, whose sales are shrinking. “Trump is likely scoring points with the auto executives by promising to rethink these regulations, but he’s making it clear he expects the automakers to return the favor by ramping up investments here in the US,” she said.
Administrator Scott Pruitt and Department of Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao announced that EPA intends to reconsider its final determination issued on 12 January 2017 which recommended no change to the greenhouse gas standards for light duty vehicles for model years 2022- 2025. ( Earlier post .) EPA will reconsider that determination in coordination with NHTSA as part of a renewed Mid-Term Evaluation process. This process was established as a part of the 2012 final greenhouse gas emissions standards for model years 2017-2025, requiring EPA to determine no later than 1 April 2018 whether the greenhouse gas standards for model years 2022-2025 established are appropriate. In coordination with EPA, the DOT’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is evaluating its fuel economy standards for that period. In accord with this schedule, […]
The growing influence of U.S. crude oil exports to Asia was a topic at a recent oil conference in London. It had been 40 years since crude oil was exported from the United States to points outside North America. Export restrictions were repealed in 2015. Virtually no crude oil was sent to Asia in 2015, but between January and November 2016 the figure rose to 50,000 barrels per day, U.S. Energy Information Administration figures said. Exports to Singapore, China, Japan, Thailand and South Korea have already grown in 2017 as well. Demand for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil is now about 14 percent […]
Vitol Group BV , the trader that shipped the first cargo of U.S. crude after export restrictions ended in late 2015, predicts the country’s oil exports will grow “a lot more” because of rising production in Texas. U.S. crude shipments briefly surged to a record 1.21 million barrels a day in mid-February, up from 32,000 in 2010, when most of the country’s production couldn’t be sold overseas because of a 40-year-old ban. “We will see a lot more growth in U.S. crude exports,” Mike Loya, the head of Vitol in the Americas, said in an interview in Houston. Loya, a 25-year Vitol veteran, said that oil production in the Permian shale, which extends from western Texas into southeast New Mexico, will rise by 600,000 to 700,000 barrels a day in the year through December. “A lot of that is going to be exported,” he said. The export boom is […]
U.S. oil refiners are going global. That’s the message that has been coming from the industry over the past year when a lot of refining capacity abroad was shut down for various reasons, making way for imports from the U.S. Bloomberg reports that in 2016, American companies exported 3 million barrels of refined petroleum products daily – a record high – and sector players seem determined to continue expanding their export capacity. Exxon, for example, recently announced a $20-billion investment program for the Gulf coast, to consist of refining and petrochemical production facilities and infrastructure. The output is planned to be exported. Exxon is far from alone in this. According to Bloomberg, many are looking abroad for new markets to take advantage of the cheap supply of crude and gas domestically, which makes the product more competitive internationally. For now, however, refiners seem to be focusing mainly on Mexico, […]
The number of autonomous vehicles on California’s roads has more than doubled as carmakers and big tech companies race against secretive start-ups to test their self-driving cars. Two new permits granted for autonomous testing on Wednesday by California’s Department of Motor Vehicles has taken the total number of companies licensed to drive their prototype vehicles in Silicon Valley’s home state to 27 — more than twice as many as a year ago and up from just seven in early 2015, according to the state’s automotive regulator. The latest entrants to the increasingly crowded market are Uber, whose testing vehicles were forced off the roads in San Francisco in December after it initially refused to apply for the DMV’s approval, and PlusAI, a 15-person start-up based in California and Beijing whose existence has until now been little known beyond a select group of automotive executives and tech investors. Earlier this month Renovo Motors, a Silicon Valley start-up developing “automated mobility on demand”, and Navya, the French creator of an autonomous electric shuttle, were both added to the DMV’s approved list. The group looks set to increase further still as companies from all over the world flock to Silicon Valley to develop their technology and tap its sought-after talent pool. Didi, the Chinese ride-hailing service, opened a new R&D centre in Mountain View on Wednesday to work on intelligent driving, cyber security and artificial intelligence.
US crude exports hit record highs in January and February, as domestic crude price discounts to Brent and Dubai widened significantly, an S&P Global Platts analysis of government data showed Tuesday. US Census Bureau data showed US crude exports rising by 304,000 b/d to 746,000 b/d in January, which was followed by a report by the US Energy Information Administration showing US crude exports averaging 900,000 b/d in the four weeks ending February 24. Congress’ December 2015 decision to lift restrictions inaugurated a new era in US oil trade, with exports averaging an annual record of 521,000 b/d in 2016. Additionally, rising production from the Permian Basin in West Texas, in combination with a significant buildout in infrastructure to access export markets, has deepened price discounts for US light sweet crudes, allowing US crude exports to take off. “It’s pure economics,” said Tony Starkey, manager of energy analysis at […]
A German utility company said it was launching a collaborative effort to develop ultra-fast charging stations for electric vehicles across Norway. German company E.ON said it was working through partnership with Denmark based e-mobility service provider CLEVER to develop networks for electric vehicles on main European motorways. The partnership said it was now teaming up with the Norwegian and Danish retail gas station chain YX Energi to build dozens of charging stations across Norway. “This network will also connect Norway with the rest of Scandinavia and Europe,” the German company explained in a statement . “The ultra-fast chargers will be installed from 2018 to 2020.” Norway leads Europe with deployment of electric vehicles, with about 100,000 on the road already. In terms […]
The headquarters of CATL, China’s fastest growing battery maker, lie on the edge of the city of Ningde, a stone’s throw from ponds where farmers raise carp and a street of cheap noodle restaurants and vehicle repair shops frequented by migrant workers. Inside the vast factory, battery parts move silently on automated conveyor belts. Signs on the walls encourage workers not to waste materials or time, or indulge in “unnecessary bending” for their own safety. The plant looks like lots of others dotted across the country. But with a valuation of $11.5bn, Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, to give it its full name, is anything but mundane. It is set to become China’s Panasonic — a national champion — and a key part of Beijing’s ambitious plan to remake the global battery market and exploit rising demand for electric cars. “We want to become a leading enterprise, like the front carriage of a train, driving an entire supply chain,” says Neill Yang, CATL’s marketing director. His office overlooks cranes and cement mixers, which are building a dormitory and offices to house 20,000 workers.
At the outset of the 2014 oil collapse, slacking oil demand growth was often cited as a major contributor to the sharp decline in oil prices. In September 2014, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated “The recent slowdown in demand growth is nothing short of remarkable”. The IEA doubled down and expanded on its weak demand thesis in its Medium-Term Oil Outlook report issued in February 2015: The global economy, reshaped by the information technology revolution, has generally become less fuel intensive. Concerns over climate change are recasting energy policies. And the globalisation of the natural gas market, coupled with steep reductions in the cost and availability of renewable energy, are causing oil to face a level of inter-fuel competition that would have seemed unfathomable a few years ago …. the recent price decline is expected to have only a marginal impact on global demand growth for the remainder […]
U.S. oil that’s pumped in the Gulf of Mexico has found a new buyer in China. Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group, a Chinese independent refiner, has bought U.S. Southern Green Canyon crude for the first time ever, according to two traders who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential. The shipment, due to arrive in April, will follow another cargo of the same grade that will be received by a Japanese processor this month. While supplies from American shale fields have made their way to Asia several times over the past year, the arrival of crude drilled off the southern U.S. coast is a more recent phenomenon spawned by output curbs in the Middle East. The lesser amount of crude leaving from the Persian Gulf has given the opportunity for similar types of oil from the Gulf of Mexico to sneak toward the biggest oil buyers in […]
The co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery has developed the first all-solid-state battery cells that could lead to safer, faster-charging and longer-lasting rechargeable batteries. John Goodenough, professor in the Cockrell School of Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin, believes the development of a low-cost all-solid-state battery that is non-combustible with a high volumetric energy density and fast rates of charge and discharge could be used for handheld mobile devices, electric cars and stationary energy storage. “Cost, safety, energy density, rates of charge and discharge and cycle life are critical for battery-driven cars to be more widely adopted,” Goodenough said in a statement. “We believe our discovery solves many of the problems that are inherent in today’s batteries.” The new batteries have at least three times as much energy density as the lithium-ion batteries currently being used. A battery cell’s energy density gives an electric vehicle its driving range, […]
The bill contained an important provision for oil producers that read “to promote the efficient exploration, production, storage, supply, marketing, pricing, and regulation of energy resources, including fossil fuels, no official of the Federal Government shall impose or enforce any restriction on the export of crude oil.” This provision ended a crude oil export ban dating back to 1975. Despite the huge surge in U.S. shale oil production since 2008, crude oil producers had to sell their product to U.S. refiners, who were free to sell refined products on the world market. Even though the U.S. was (and remains) a net importer of crude oil, the longtime premium on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) over internationally traded Brent crude vanished in response to the shale boom. Meanwhile, refiners were exporting finished products that were more representative of Brent crude pricing. Refiners loved this arraignment, and lobbied to keep the ban […]
Goodenough and UT team report new strategy for all-solid-state Na or Li battery suitable for EVs; plating cathodes
A team of engineers led by John Goodenough, professor in the Cockrell School of Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin and co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery, has developed a new strategy for a safe, low-cost, all-solid-state rechargeable sodium or lithium battery cell that has the required energy density and cycle life for a battery that powers an all-electric road vehicle. An open-access paper on the work is published in the RSC journal Energy & Environmental Science . The cells use a solid glass electrolyte having a Li + or Na + conductivity >10 -2 S cm -1 at 25 ˚C with a motional enthalpy ≈ 0.06 eV, which promises to offer acceptable operation at lower temperatures. Using the new glass, the cathode consists of plating the anode alkali-metal (e.g., (lithium, sodium or potassium) on a copper–carbon cathode current collector at a voltage of more than 3.0 V. […]
A global market looking to balance OPEC output declines and an expected increase in U.S. pipeline capacity could make oil exports attractive, analysis finds. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last week that total crude oil production at just over 9 million barrel per day, showing the regional market is gaining ground despite crude oil prices at about half their peak from 2014. Total crude oil exports, meanwhile, passed 1 million barrels per day for their highest level ever. A 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports was overturned by President Barack Obama during his second term in office. U.S. oil transport is limited by the pipeline capacity feeding southern ports, though if the Dakota Access Pipeline is completed, that could move up to […]
Another week, another record for U.S. crude exports. Producers and traders shipped out 1.21 million barrels a day of U.S. crude in the week that ended February 17, the most in Energy Information Administration data going back to 1993. Domestic output increased to 9 million barrels per day last week, the fastest pace since April, while U.S. refiners used the least crude since October 2015. Shale output has surged and tankers loaded in the Middle East during the last days of all-out production by OPEC nations arrived this month in the U.S., swelling stockpiles to a record. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude have averaged $2.24 a barrel below global marker Brent this year, making U.S. oil more attractive to refiners around the world. Local refiners are using as much domestic crude as they can and the remaining incremental production is being exported, Gary Morgan, director for Clarksons Platou […]
The United States is on track to become a net exporter of gas next year, driven largely by the growth of liquefied natural gas exports, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The U.S. started exporting LNG last year, courtesy of Houston-based Cheniere Energy, and the country is increasingly piping more natural gas to Mexico while, simultaneously, importing less gas via pipeline from Canada. The U.S. was still an overall net importer last year. The nation is projected to become a net exporter of total energy products shortly after 2020, the Energy Department said, which was a virtually unheard of proposition just a decade ago. Cheniere’s first LNG export facility at Louisiana’s Sabine Pass near the Texas border came online a year ago. Houston-based Freeport LNG Development’s export terminal is slated to start shipping LNG in 2018. Three other LNG export projects will be completed or under construction by 2021, […]
The Ioniq Hybrid offers up to the highest fuel economy in the US (up to 58 mpg / 4.05 l/100 km) for a non-plug-in vehicle and the Ioniq Electric is the industry’s most efficient EV (136 mpge / 25 kWh/100 miles). In addition to efficiency and value, a key design goal for the Hyundai team was driveability: specifically, a fun-to-drive, “segment-appropriate” driving experience. During the media launch last week in Santa Barbara, California, Hyundai provided production versions of the hybrid and battery-electric vehicle, and a pre-production version of the plug-in hybrid. Based on relatively short drives in all three variants, we conclude that Hyundai nailed its goals. In […]
With the constant din of traffic noise from London’s M25 orbital motorway and the smell of diesel wafting in the air, Cobham service station in Surrey does not feel like a frontier in the clean energy revolution. Yet, it is here that Britain will get its first public filling station for hydrogen-powered cars on Wednesday as part of a bet by Royal Dutch Shell on a technology vying with battery-powered electric vehicles to replace fossil fuels in road transportation. Shell is already part of a public-private consortium planning 400 hydrogen filling stations across Germany by 2023, together with partners including its French rival Total. The Cobham facility marks the start of a wider effort to support growth of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in north-west Europe. “We see more carmakers putting focus on hydrogen and the first vehicles are beginning to arrive in key markets, particularly Japan, Germany and California,” says Matthew Tipper, head of new fuels at Shell. “That gives us confidence to begin building out infrastructure.” Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have so far struggled to gain momentum in the race with battery-powered cars to become the dominant challenger to the internal combustion engine. The faltering progress was epitomised by Toyota’s recall last week of its entire global fleet of 2,800 Mirai hydrogen vehicles to fix a software glitch.
Companies like Tesla, Uber and Google have sparked a lot of interest in the roll out of autonomous vehicles (AVs), or driverless cars, and while it is still early days, the transition to AVs could have enormous implications for the oil industry. There is a great deal of logic in AVs. For instance, an estimated 4 percent of total household vehicles are in use at any one time. AVs promise to make the transportation system much more efficient by allowing for the shared use of vehicles. Instead of every single person needing their own car, which they use only a fraction of their day, a single AV could service multiple households. Or, more specifically, a pool of AVs could provide enough transit service for a much larger number of people. This will cut down on fuel consumption, traffic, air pollution, and potentially provide an economic jolt from the savings. […]
General Motors Co plans to deploy thousands of self-driving electric cars in test fleets in partnership with ride-sharing affiliate Lyft Inc, beginning in 2018, two sources familiar with the automaker’s plans said this week. It is expected to be the largest such test of fully autonomous vehicles by any major automaker before 2020, when several companies have said they plan to begin building and deploying such vehicles in higher volumes. Alphabet Inc’s Waymo subsidiary, in comparison, is currently testing about 60 self-driving prototypes in four states. Most of the specially equipped versions of the Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle will be used by San Francisco-based Lyft, which will test them in its […]
While oil and gasoline prices have traditionally determined the fate of electrified vehicle sales, plug-in vehicles are seeing other forces shaping global markets. When oil prices plunged in 2014, hybrid vehicles took a hit along with their residual values in several global markets. Plug-in electrified vehicles – battery electric and plug-in hybrid – saw similar trends emerging at first. However, PEVs have seen unit sales rise significantly in the U.S., Europe, and China during the past two years – as gasoline prices have stayed down. It appears that other market dynamics are influencing PEV sales now more than oil and fuel pump prices. Government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has projected 800,000 “ new energy vehicles ” (PEVs) will be sold this year in China – a 58 percent increase over 2016. Last year, there were about 507,000 new energy vehicles sold, growing by more than 50 percent […]
Investors are buying up physical cobalt anticipating that shortages of the metal, a key component of lithium-ion batteries used in electrical cars, will spur prices to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. Prices for cobalt metal have climbed nearly 50 percent since September to five-year peaks around $19 a lb as stricter emissions controls boost demand for electric vehicles, especially in China, struggling with ruinous pollution levels in some cities. (For a graphic on how Lithium-ion battery works click tmsnrt.rs/2kOUBNQ ) Consultants CRU Group say electric car and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales could hit 4.4 million in 2021 and more than six million by 2025, from 1.1 million last year. By 2020, 75 percent of lithium-ion […]
U.S. oil exports are on the rise, fueled by comparatively higher prices for foreign oil they compete with and lower shipping rates. But analysts say any further increases in exports will be slow and the prospect of American energy independence remains a lofty goal. Crude-oil sales abroad were prohibited for decades until the government lifted the export ban 14 months ago in the hopes of reducing a bulging oversupply that had helped…
LNG exports from the US’ Sabine Pass hit a record in January this year, according to data from Platts Analytics, Friday. Export volumes reached 1.476 Bcm of gas equivalent, versus a monthly average of just under 0.5 Bcm since the plant started loading cargoes in February 2016. The increase in production coincides with the ramp up of the facility’s second 4.5 million mt/year train which completed commissioning and was handed over to the operator, Cheniere, in September last year. Following a period of planned maintenance from September into October, when both trains were brought offline, export volumes have been increasing steadily. Article continues below… LNG Daily is essential reading as LNG supply dynamics continue to change in big markets like Japan, China, India and the U.S. This premier independent news publication for the global LNG industry gives readers information on every aspect of the global market from new LNG […]
Volkswagen AG launched a U.S. subsidiary Tuesday designed to oversee $2 billion in investments to promote zero-emission vehicles such as electric cars, a commitment the German auto giant made in the wake of cheating on U.S. emissions tests for several years. Dubbed Electrify America LLC, the organization is an attempt to show a renewed commitment to clean vehicles by pouring money into electric-vehicle charging stations in the U.S….
The falling cost of electric vehicle and solar technology will halt demand growth for oil and coal from 2020, according to research published on Thursday, posing a threat to fossil fuel companies unprepared for the transition. The Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and independent think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative analyzed cost forecasts for electric vehicle (EV) and solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, government policies and the impact on road transport and power markets, which account for half of global fossil fuel consumption. “Fossil fuels may lose 10 percent of market share to PV and EVs within a single decade. This may not sound much but it can be the beginning of the end once demand starts to decline,” Carbon Tracker said in a statement. A 10 percent […]
Nobody would have predicted ten years ago, back when everyone was talking about Who Killed the Electric Car, that oil would someday have to fear the future of General Motor’s EV1. Practically none of the 1,117 units were still in commission in 2006 when the movie first aired, but today there’s a whole new fleet. In fact, oil majors are worried that electric powered cars could soon replace traditional combustion engines. Electric cars are becoming more numerous every day. This past October, EVs represented over 5 percent of energy consumption in the transportation sector. A recent study shows that EV prices are declining faster than anticipated and that oil demand could peak by 2020. This would be brought on by EVs reaching price parity with ICEs. Carbon Tracker and the Imperial College of London were quoted saying “This growth trajectory sees EVs displace approximately two million barrels of oil […]
Volvo Buses has received an order for eight electric buses, the Volvo 7900 electric, from Transdev Blazefield, the owner of the Harrogate Bus Company in the UK. Operations start in 2018 in Harrogate, 90 km northeast of Manchester. When the vehicles enter service in 2018, the project will be the first of its kind in the UK introducing full electric vehicles using opportunity charging via the common interface OppCharge, whereby the charging stations can also be used by electrified buses from other vehicle manufacturers. OppCharge is now starting to be used as a common interface in more than 12 countries. ( Earlier post .) Opportunity charging takes place via an overhead mast, which connects to the bus […]
The U.S. may export more oil in 2017 than four OPEC member states produce, according to a survey of energy analysts by Bloomberg. The U.S. is already outproducing Libya, Qatar, Ecuador and Gabon; in 2017, U.S. companies could ship more oil overseas than those OPEC nation pump out of the ground, according to Bloomberg . “The United States has dramatically increased energy production and use even as emissions continue to decline,” Reid Porter, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute (API), told The Daily Caller News Foundation. “For the first time in our lifetime, we can now say that North America has the potential to become a net energy exporter,” Porter said. “That’s a revolutionary change, a significant shift from where we were just a few short years ago.” The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects oil production to top nine million barrels a day in 2017. The U.S. […]
A 2014-style oil price meltdown could occur again. Only this time, instead of a sudden surge of supply, the culprit will be the fast adoption of electric vehicles, which will cut into oil demand enough to cause prices to fall. That prediction comes from Carbon Tracker , a think tank that has repeatedly warned about the prospect of fossil fuel “stranded assets,” due to the rise of clean energy and increasingly restrictive climate policy. In its latest report, Carbon Tracker envisions a scenario in which 2 million barrels per day of oil demand are erased by 2025 because of the penetration of EVs in the transportation sector. Reducing global oil demand by 2 mb/d may not seem like much, but it is equivalent to the supply overhang that triggered the 2014 oil price meltdown. It does not take a massive discrepancy between supply and demand to crash prices. The […]
U.S. crude exports are poised to surpass production in four OPEC nations in 2017 and may grow even more if President Donald Trump honors pledges to ease drilling restrictions and maximize output. The world’s largest oil-consuming country could sell as much as 800,000 barrels a day of crude overseas this year, according to four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s more than OPEC producers Libya, Qatar, Ecuador and Gabon each pumped in December. The U.S. exported 527,000 barrels a day in the first 11 months of 2016, Energy Information Administration data show. Chalk it all up to a resurgence in shale oil and gas, which Trump is counting on to create jobs and rebuild roads, schools and bridges. U.S. output will rebound to more than 9 million barrels a day in 2017 after sliding 5.6 percent to 8.87 million in 2016, the EIA estimates . And since restrictions on U.S. […]
The growth of battery-powered cars could be as disruptive to the oil market as the OPEC market-share war that triggered the price crash of 2014, potentially wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off the value from fossil fuel producers in the next decade. About 2 million barrels a day of oil demand could be displaced by electric vehicles by 2025, equivalent in size to the oversupply that triggered the biggest oil industry downturn in a generation over the past three years, according to research from Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a think tank, published Thursday. A similar 10 percent loss of market share caused the collapse of the U.S. coal mining industry and wiped more than a 100 billion euros ($108 billion) off the value of European utilities from 2008 to 2013, the report said. Major oil companies are waking up to the potential disruption plug-in […]
The U.S. for the first time is pushing more crude and refined petroleum products into Latin America than it brings back, signaling a change in the global trade map that could be tested if President Donald Trump introduces border taxes. The scales tipped in favor of the U.S. in October, when it recorded a surplus of 89,000 barrels a day of petroleum, the first gain for the U.S. since records began in 1993, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In November, the surplus grew to 184,000 barrels a day, the EIA said Tuesday. That compares to a 4.3 million barrel deficit in 2005. The change comes as Latin America, led by Mexico, is importing unusually large amounts of gasoline as aging refineries fail to keep up with soaring demand. At the same time, the region’s output of heavy crude, once a staple for U.S. refiners, is declining just […]
Global energy demand will grow by around a third, driven by a burgeoning Asian middle-class, according to BP’s latest energy outlook. “Global demand grows by around a third in the base case, with virtually all of this increase consumed by fast growing emerging economies,” Spencer Dale, BP’s group chief economist, said. In terms of the fuels meeting this increased demand, BP’s outlook points to a continuing shift in the fuel mix, with non-fossil fuels providing half of the increase in primary energy, Dale said. “Even so, oil and gas, together with coal, continue to meet the majority of the world’s energy needs, accounting for more than three quarters of total energy supply in 2035,” he added. Natural gas is also expected to grow more quickly than either oil or coal, overtaking coal to be the second largest fuel source by 2035. BP’s Energy Outlook sets out a base case […]
The world’s oil producers are counting on a production cut to boost crude prices, but a slowdown in stockpiling by China’s and India’s governments could offer obstacles to that plan. For years, the governments of emerging oil consumers like China and India have been stockpiling crude, looking to build buffers like those long held by the U.S. and other developed countries. These stockpiling efforts have been important—if…