The sharp decline in oil prices over the last quarter of 2014, which has continued in January, is already having a significant effect on drilling activity in the United States, as shown by the 16% decline in the number of active onshore drilling rigs in the Lower 48 states between the weeks ending on October 31, 2014 and January 23, 2015, according to data from Baker-Hughes. Moving from what has happened to forecasting the future is challenging, in part because market expectations of uncertainty in the price outlook have increased as reflected in the current values of futures and options contracts. When the latest edition of EIA’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was issued on January 13, the 95% confidence interval for market expectations for prices […]