The press has been all abuzz the past few weeks speculating on what the drop in oil prices will mean for U.S. shale oil (tight oil) production. Pundits have been falling over themselves quoting various estimates of the breakeven cost of production in this play or that, and rushing to be the first to declare a peak in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara or wherever. The Baker-Hughes rig count, which comes out every Friday, has become a must-read for people who probably had never heard of it a few months ago. Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on estimates, suggests production is declining in three big shale oil plays. The industry, on the other hand, has been more circumspect. They point to productivity gains being made in drilling and completion technology that lower costs, and suggest they are developing a backlog (aka “fracklog” ) of wells that […]