Less than two weeks before OPEC’s next Most Important Meeting Ever the oil market is doubtful that the cartel will reach a meaningful supply reducing agreement. Traders have revealed skepticism that a deal to cut production to the Algiers-agreed range of 32.5m bpd – 33m bpd will be finalized in the form of bearish COT data, a bearish options skew and of course on the ultimate scoreboard where WTI has moved lower than pre-Algiers levels. The market has yet to completely write off OPEC, however, and Monday’s headline driven reversal off of the $42.20 weekly low confirmed that traders are still alert to the possibility of an agreement. In our view the cartel is slightly more likely to deliver a bullish surprise than a bearish one on November 30 due to the erosion of the previously iron-clad GCC members’ balance sheets. Given the massive fiscal damage […]