WTI traded in an unusually narrow $48.75/$47.03 range this week despite an extreme weather event in the world’s refining hub and geopolitical tensions in from MENA to DC. – In geopolitics we continue to see storm clouds over OPEC producers. Venezuelan credit moved sharply lower this week after the US banned trading in the country’s government bonds as well as PDVSA debt. RBC also authored a note discussing a potential PDVSA default in October or November. While any scenario for decreased output in Venezuela is hard to quantify, it’s becoming easier to accept that the most likely path for Venezuelan production is lower. We also saw more disruptions in Libya this week which failed to make a material dent in supplies but provide an important reminder that their supply gains have climbed a slippery slope in a politically volatile country. – Away from the oil market currency, bond and […]