OPEC is on the verge of extending its production cuts for an additional nine months, pushing the deal through the end of 2018. But the determination to keep the cuts in place comes at the same time that U.S. shale seems to be accelerating in response to higher oil prices. It’s an impossible tension that OPEC has to deal with. Hesitate on cuts and risk another slide in oil prices, or keep the cuts in place and offer more room to U.S. shale? OPEC has tried to send a signal to the oil market that the group is operating with a consensus, and it telegraphed its intentions ahead of time to inspire confidence in the group’s cohesion. By demonstrating such resolve, the logic seems to be, the oil market would continue to tighten and prices would remain stable. But the downside of such a strategy is that it isn’t […]