On the morning of publication of the EIA-914 and EIA PSM reports today (October 31), providing US monthly oil production data for August 2018, Rystad Energy analysis indicates that the market should expect significant outperformance of US oil production compared to the EIA’s predictions. The EIA’s current Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) suggests total US oil production growth of 90,000 bpd from July to August 2018 with nationwide oil production averaging 11.05 million bpd in August 2018. According to the EIA, 80,000 bpd of this growth should come from Alaska, whereas the predicted decline in production from the Gulf of Mexico nearly offsets the projected increase from the Lower 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico. However, actual well production data and daily throughout figures from the TAPS pipeline suggests that this projection for Alaska is in fact too optimistic, with August 2018 oil production averaging 428,000 bpd, about 40,000 […]