Financial markets are downright exuberant about the arrival of some trade peace — at least for now — between the United States and China. President Trump boasted Friday afternoon of a “substantial phase one deal,” including Chinese purchases of American agricultural products and an accord on currency policy. The United States is also holding off on tariffs that were to go into effect next week. Over the last few days, the expectation of such a “mini-deal” between the two superpowers drove up stocks and helped ease recession fears. There’s no question that this is good near-term news for the economy and the markets. But anybody who has followed the ups and downs of trade policy in the last two years — or who understands the actual ways that the trade wars are affecting the economy — won’t be nearly as optimistic as the president’s words […]