The recent attack on the Abqaiq oil refinery saw Brent prices jump 20 percent in a matter of minutes, the largest spike in oil prices since 1982. Ultimately, the sharp increase proved to be temporary as oil dropped 6 percent on the back of reassurances from Aramco’s CEO that supply would return. Prices then continued to slide as concerns over world economic growth and long-term oversupply kicked in. The pattern of geopolitical price spikes followed by a continued slide has repeated itself since then and we can expect that trend to continue in the coming year. The Middle East’s unpredictable diplomatic-security conditions will continue to play off against the economic impact of various trade wars around the globe. Geopolitical Risk Ever since William d’Arcy’s discovery of oil in the Middle East in 1908, the region has always held significant geopolitical value. That value, as well as several historical variables, […]