It’s been the steady drumbeat that has defined the oil market over the last two years. As tensions have mounted between Iran and the U.S., each development—from renewed sanctions to saber-rattling to the threat of outright war—has brought the question: how much are oil prices going to rise? There are historical reasons for this: conflicts in the Middle East are associated with oil price increases. In the past, they have had such an effect—the lead-up to the 1990 Gulf War, in particular, sparked a prolonged rally—and day-to-day, price spikes are often used as a proxy for just how nervous investors are about global politics. But if we take the last several days as a guide, convention certainly doesn’t match reality. While Brent crude initially spiked on Friday, following the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, by Wednesday the jump had evaporated. Oil prices were back where they started—and […]